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Tale of the Tape: A&M vs. UT

 

I thought I would do a little breakdown/ preview of the game on Turkey Day against our arch rivals in Austin. I will do a position/unit breakdown of the game.

Offense:

Quarterback: Colt McCoy has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country and a contender for the Heisman, while Jerrod Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance at times and shown that he is a first year starting QB at others. A lot of his mistakes have been contributed, though, to just how poor our o-line has been. The poor kid has had to be running for his life the second the ball snapped.

Edge: Significant to Texas

Running Back: Heading in to the season, many of us thought that the two head monster of Lane and Goodson would be one of the huge strengths of the team and that we had a significant advantage over Texas. Well the thunder and lightning combo has been a bust this season with Goodson being hurt for stretches of the season and showing flashes that made him a dark horse Heisman candidate entering the season, while the J-Train has been derailed from the start of the season, whether being in Sherman's dog house, ineffectiveness or us falling behind so early that we have been forced to abandon the running game. Freshman Cyrus Gray has shown flashes at times but he has been more effective as return man.  While Texas has no one tailback that has carried the team like in previous seasons with Cedric Benson and Jamaal Charles, they have more of a tailback by committee approach this year with several guys contributing. In the middle of the season, it was Chris Ogbonnaya who was the head guy, now lately it has been Vondrell McGee and a freshman named Fozzy Whitaker. All three guys have a distinct running style and bring different aspects to the game. Ogbonnaya is more of their all purpose back while McGee is a one-cut downhill type of runner and Whittaker is a shifty back who is very similar to Jamaal Charles in terms of running style while not as fast.

Edge: Texas, they have been much more productive and better than ours.

O-Line: This is pretty simple our o-line has probably been the weakest link on the team while the Texas o-line has been very solid throughout the season with the exception of one bad half against Tech.

Edge: Texas and a significant one.

Tight end: With the injury of UT's top tight end, Blaine Irby, the tight end position has basically been non-existent for UT, while Jamie McCoy has put together a solid season and has been a down the seams threat for us this year.

Edge: Significant one to Texas A&M.

Wide Receivers: The wide receiver group has probably been the strength of the team for us this year. Jeff Fuller, Ryan Tannehill and Terrence McCoy have been steady and solid for us this whole year. The big play threat for us has been Jeff Fuller who has the potential to be a star later down the road. While the Longhorns don't boast the start power at the wide receiver position as they have in previous years with the likes of Roy Williams, BJ Johnson, and Sloan Thomas, an argument could be made that this year's group is much deeper and better overall. The Longhorns have 5 legitimate threats at the wide receiver position, in Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby, Brandon Collins, James Kirkendoll and Malcolm Williams. Colt McCoy's favorite targets are Cosby and Shipley, with Collins filling the role as the third wide out. With the exception of Malcolm Williams all of the receivers are more possession type receivers than deep threats. They have the ability to go deep, but they do not go that often.

Edge: This one goes to Texas as Texas is deeper and better at this position than the Aggies.

After the jump: Defense and Special Teams

 

 

Star-divide

Defense: D-Line Our d-line was supposed to be a strength, to an extent, on the defense with Michael Bennett and Cyril Obiozor anchoring the unit. Needless to say, they and the unit have been a disappointment this year. They have given quarterbacks all day to throw and have been non-existent at run defense. The unit in general is pretty forgettable and unimpressive. We have only had 13 sacks on the year while our opponents have had 33. Texas d-line is arguably the strength of their defense with two potential first round draft picks in Brian Orakpo and Roy Miller. Both figure to earn first team All Big 12 with Orakpo probably an All-American. They have wrecked havoc on offensive lines the whole year and have gotten into the face of every quarterback they have played with the exception of Tech. With how bad our o-line is, expect a sack party for the Orakpo and Co.

Edge: Texas

Linebackers: The linebacking unit for us has been fairly mediocre with offenses being able to do whatever they want whenever they want. Our run defense has been terrible to say the least with teams averaging 5.2 yards per carry for 220 yards a game. Our linebackers have been mediocre to put it nicely. The "best" player for us has been Matt Featherston and Von Miller is second. The linebackers for UT have been solid for the whole year. There is no Derrick Johnson as in years past, but the closest has been Sergio Kindle who is looking more and more as a potential first round pick. He has the speed to rush the passer and chase down ball carriers from behind. His strip of Michael Crabtree was one of the more impressive defensive plays of the season that I have seen. Roderick Muckleroy and Jared Norton have been steady contributors as well. Expect the Texas linebackers to contain our running game with ease and then go after the QB.

Edge: Texas

Secondary: Its simple this unit for us has been absolutely terrible making the likes of Josh Freeman and Robert Marve look like All-Americans. Whether it has been busted coverage, being burned deep or missed tackles this secondary has been bad. There is no other way to put it. It doesn't help them that their d-line couldn't sack the quarterback if their lives depended on it. The only playmaker for us has been Trent Hunter. The talent on this secondary is just inferior to UT's and makes you long for the good ol' days of Sammy Davis, Terrence Kiel, and Byron Jones. While statistically UT's secondary has been poor they have actually been a very solid unit. They don't give up many big plays in the passing game and are very solid tacklers. Their secondary is not a ball hawking one as their safeties seem to have bad butterfingers as they can't catch balls thrown right at them. Perhaps the biggest play of this season in all of college football has been the drop of gift wrapped interception by Blake Gideon against Texas Tech in the dying seconds.

Edge: Texas, they have been much steadier and solid than us.

Special Teams:

Punter: Justin Brantely is probably the only guy on the team that will make All-Conference honors while UT's punter has been solid throughout the season, but not really needed as he has punted only 20 times.

Edge: Texas A&M

Kicker: I don't really expect the game to come down to the kickers as neither team has attempted many. UT has only attempted 12 because they go down the field score a touchdown on every possession while we have only attempted 9 because we have fallen so far behind that it is worthless to kick a field goal or we can't get into opponents territory. The UT kicking game has been much more stable then ours with two solid kickers in Hunter Lawrence and Ryan Bailey where it appears that Randy Bullock has won the job over Richie Bean.

Edge: Texas, not that they will really need to kick field goals.

Kick Return: Texas has had 33 Kick Returns while we have had 57. That is all I need to tell as to which team is better at this area. Cyrus Gray has been a spark for this team in the return game where Jordan Shipley has been a solid a return guy for Texas with a knack for making big returns in big games. Although Shipley has a better return average it is because he hasn't had as many opportunitites as Gray. The kick coverage for both teams has been solid and is about even. 

Punt Return: There really is no difference between the two teams as they have only had 11 (Texas) and 13 (A&M) each. Both teams have low punt return averages, but Texas has returned one punt for a touchdown this year while our long return has been 22 yards. Don't look for this game to be a field position battle.

Edge: Texas gets the edge because of the Touchdown.

Edge Texas A&M

Coaching: The coaching matchup is irrelevant as Bear Bryant could not lead us to victory. The talent gap is so far that any edge that A&M would have would be erased by the talent gap.

Edge: Texas

Conclusion/Prediction: I don't see us even being competitive in this game. I know I am being pessimistic here but the performances the past two weeks have really given me no hope as to how we will be competitive in this game. Look for Texas to try to establish the running game early in order to minimize turnovers and then pick us apart with the short passing game. Frankly, whatever Texas decides to do on offense will, more than, likely work, Defensively expect the 'Horns to come after Jerrod Johnson and double Jeff Fuller on the outside and expect their linebackers to take care of what little running game we have. Offensively I think we will try to spread Texas out and use their speed and aggressiveness against them, with bubble screens, screens and draws. Texas has a huge edge in every statistical category and has a huge talent advantage at nearly every position. Which means bad news for us guys.

I hate to say it guys, but this game will be over by halftime as Texas will come out hungry and mad and blow us off the ball. The game will be about damage control for us. The only thing that will save us from total embarrassment is that Mack Brown is a nice guy, but then again he probably will need to convince the voters that his team should be in the Big 12 Championship Game provided OU beats Tech this Saturday. I may be pessimistic but I really don't see how the game will be competitive. I know it's a rivalry game and that we have won the last two years, but the last two years UT wasn't as good as this year and we weren't this bad.

Prediction: Texas 56 Texas A&M 14

 

 

0 recs | Comment 11 comments

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I don't plan on watching much of the game

I think they’ll score more than 56 if they’re able. If OU wins, they’re battling OU for berths. Thus, points and stats are small victories. Also, they want revenge. It’s going to be a sad day to end the season.

Could we win? Sure. Anyone can win. The chances? Not so much.

by carsondude on Nov 20, 2008 10:38 AM CST   0 recs

nice analysis

although,……. even though yall have taken what should have been the best backfield since bush and white and done nothing with it….i would still give the rb edge to a&m. way too many good, quality backs. i personally hope goodson comes back next year to get the year he deserves. he should have been the leader for the doak this year. even though i hate a&m, i love the fact he choose to stay in the state of texas…picking the ags over teams like usc and florida. i just hope he gets the shot he deserves next year at least….just not against Texas though

by wishiwasalonghorn on Nov 22, 2008 3:16 AM CST   0 recs

Goodson is better than OGGY and Fozzy.

But to say they are the best duo since Bush/White is ridiculous. Lane has like 12 carries this year and is now most famous for his tantrum during the Miami game last year.

by the1austin on Nov 23, 2008 1:54 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Darren McFadden and Felix Jones are unimpressed by your choice of backfield duos

But I understand your point. Lane has been a story of wasted potential, and Goodson could have been a star.

I have wondered since his sophomore year what it would take to turn Lane into a dependable contributor – aside from weight loss. Anybody have the inside story?

proud to swim home

by learned hand on Nov 23, 2008 3:08 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

true

I agree that there have been better backfields (barber/maroney as well) in recent memory than goodson/lane, but I do believe they had and have(goodson) a chance to be legitimate backs on the national stage. ….and I thought lane’s most famous tantrum came against penn state in the Alamo bowl

by wishiwasalonghorn on Nov 23, 2008 1:53 PM CST   0 recs

Disagree at RB where I would say that we have the clear advantage in talent. There is no one on tu’s team like Goodson. Our inferior OL has kept our Rbs from looking great, but that does not mean that they are not great RBs. tu has a great OL, and mediocre to poor Rbs. The fact that they have been unable to run the ball with that OL tells you a lot about their RBs. I would call this matchup a push. We have better Rbs but they are not allowed to be better on the field b/c the OL is that bad. tu simply has as bad of a group of backs as you will ever see there.

Sergio Kindle is playing DE for tu and will not be a 1st round draft pick. I think tu’s secondary is every bit as bad as ours. Statistically they may be worse, and our DBs do not have the pass rush that the tu secondary does. I would call that another push.

38-30

by miketag on Nov 24, 2008 6:38 PM CST   0 recs

Disagree

I like your argument about the running backs and I see it. Talent wise, its not even a contest, We have the edge, but I’m basing it on what they have done this season. Goodson and Lane have, basically, done nothing this year while their tailback by committee has done way better than us. Also, its not like Goodson and Lane are suddenly going to have a break out game when we couldn’t run against the likes of Baylor, Colorado, K-State etc. Talent wise its an edge to us, but I’m basing it on what has been done this year and in the case of our guys pretty much nothing.

I think you are completely wrong about the secondary. UT’s may be bad but its not as bad as ours. They have done a lot more and have been much more steadier than our guys. I do agree that every secondary needs a pass rush to be effective and that is a huge reason why our secondary hasn’t been any good UT’s has performed better and that is why they get the edge.

by PrimeTime2012 on Nov 24, 2008 6:50 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Texas’ pass defense ranks #110 in the nation. Ours ranks #91. We have more interceptions and have given up less TD passes than tu has. All without the pass rush that tu has. I would say that our secondary is better. Imagine what tu’s secondary would look like with our front 7 in front of it. tu has two definite 1st day draft picks on their DL in Orakpo (should be a 1st rounder) and Miller (3rd rounder). Michael Bennett should get drafted but I think he will be a second day pick.

38-30

by miketag on Nov 25, 2008 10:05 AM CST   0 recs

I don't buy it.

We got bombed by Baylor, OU, K-State, Oklahoma State and Texas didn’t. I don’t care if you look at the stats Texas has the better secondary. They have shown it by being more reliable and part of being a good secondary is having a good d-line.

by PrimeTime2012 on Nov 25, 2008 12:25 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

well
We got bombed by Baylor, OU, K-State, Oklahoma State

If we got bombed so badly, you would think our secondary would perform worse than texas’. The problem is, if you lok at the statistics, you can see we have outperformed texas’ secondary.

If you consider the DL as part of the secondary, then you have to say our secondary is obviously more talented than texas’ secondary, simply b/c we feature a worse DL and pretty much have no pass rush whatsoever.

To be covering receivers as long as ours do b/c there is no pressure on the QB, they must have some ability.

by Beergut on Nov 25, 2008 11:43 PM CST   0 recs

“part of being a good secondary is having a good d-line”

I always thought it was having good CBs and safeties. Silly me.

by miketag on Nov 29, 2008 5:55 PM CST   0 recs

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