A&M-texas: A Unit Breakdown
When looking at these two teams, I don't think their skill position talent in certain areas is all that different. Both squads have terrific wide receivers. Both squads have either a good or great QB leading their respective offense. When taking a closer look, the main difference between the two teams is arguably in the most important area, among both lines. However, since nothing is done in a vacuum, instead of looking at position vs. position, I'm looking at unit versus unit, because that is where the matchups really matter.
Aggie Running Game vs. texas Rush Defense: texas' run defense has been fairly spectacular this season, giving up only 82.5 yards rushing per game. Opponents average 3.1 yds per rush against the texas defense, which is certainly respectable. I think this is texas' best unit against the run since the 2006 squad, which A&M torched in Austin. The difference between then and now, though, is that A&M had a stellar offensive line in 2006, and we lack one now. A&M averages a paltry 98.7 yards per game rushing, with an average of 3.1 yards per carry. That just doesn't get it done, which is one of the reasons we have had a 7-loss season so far this year. Our inability to run the ball is due in large part of inconcistency and mediocrity on the offensive line. The offensive line as a unit has performed poorly in the run game; instead of improving as the season has gone on, they have been decimated with injuries as of late. We're starting two players at offensive tackle who should be starting at offensive guard; that is all you need to know about our OL situation. I think attempting to execute an unwieldy 4-man running back rotation has also hurt our offensive line. Trying to make sure we get enough carries for Mike Goodson, Cyrus Gray, Jorvorskie Lane, and Bradley Stephens is difficult enough, without throwing Keondra Smith into the mix. While A&M boats more talent and depth at the RB position than texas does, it won't matter much in this game because our offensive line hasn't allowed us to feature our running attack at all this season. If we are able to run the ball effectively in this game, look for an upset, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Advantage: texas
Aggie Passing Game vs. texas Pass Defense: This may be the one area of the game where A&M boasts a serious advantage over texas. texas' pass defense is terrible. They have a very good defensive line who provides a great pass rush, and yet their secondary regularly gets ripped, game after game. texas gives up an average of 266.1 yards per game through the air, and has given up 17 passing TDs so far this season. A&M averages 250.9 yards passing per game, so we should be able to exploit their secondary. I like the matchup of Jamie McCoy against Sergio Kindle or Rshad Bobino across the middle; I think we can exploit this weakness. It goes without saying that I like Ryan Tannehill, Terrence McCoy, and Jeff Fuller against texas' secondary. I think Fuller can beat Ryan Palmer or Deon Beasley easily. The key for A&M will be passing in the redzone, because with texas' strong run defense, getting yards inside their 20 will be tough. We're going to have to do it through the air.
Advantage: A&M
Overall: Texas A&M Offense vs. texas Defense
I think the key to this matchup will be A&M's ability to move the ball in the red zone. What makes texas' defense so effective is their ability to shut down the run. The most effective way to move the ball inside the red zone, because of limited space, is through the run. texas has an advantage in this area on us. I think we may be able to pass the ball between the 20s, but we will have issues moving it inside the red zone with the run. The core matchup then becomes our wide receivers against texas' secondary, which is a matchup we win. However, it is a different story inside the red zone, where it is more difficult to pass the ball. This is a rivalry game, though, so you never know what is going to happen.
Advantage: texas
More after the jump...
texas' Running Game vs. Texas A&M's Rush Defense: texas averages a very respectable 173.4 yards per game rushing. What makes that average surprising is that texas doesn't have a single player on their team with over 600 yds rushing. Their leading rusher is QB Colt McCoy, who has 527 yds rushing on the season. Their second leading rusher is the solid but unspectacular Vondrell McGee, with 347 yds on the season, and then you have Chris Ogbonnaya with 333 yds on the year. The key thing here is that texas really doesn't run the ball all that much. McGee has 79 carries through 11 games, Ogbonnaya 62. That is an average of 7 carries per game for McGee, a little over 5 per game for Ogbonnaya. Along with McCoy, who has 117 rushes on the season (and some of those are QB sacks), you're looking at an average of 22 carries per game between the three of them, which isn't a lot. Considering the fact that these three players run the ball so seldom, they are amazing effective when they do run, all averaging at least 4 yds per carry, which is respectable. A&M's rush defense gives up an average of 219.5 yards per game, which is just pathetic. Because of the lack of speed of our defensive linemen and linebackers, we are sometimes left hoping someone in the secondary will tackle the ballcarrier.
Advantage: texas
texas' Passing Game vs. Texas A&M's Pass Defense: Well, here we run into another quandary with the lack of speed in our defensive personnel. Because we don't have much speed on our defensive line or linebacking corps, we don't get to the opposing QB very much, so we don't provide much of a pass rush. Our secondary is often left out on an island, having to cover for 3-4 seconds longer on a play than they should, simply because the opposing QB has too much time in the pocket to find someone open. A&M gives up an average of 235.6 yds per game passing, which isn't good by any means, but it isn't absolutely horrible either, considering the circumstances. However, texas' WRs may be the strongest skill position on the texas team, with leaders Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby doing a terrific job for them this season. Cosby has 72 catches for 872 yds so far this season, and Shipley has 75 receptions for 897 yds this year. Both could very well go over the 1000 yd mark against A&M tomorrow. Shipley is especially effective on crossing routes over the middle, and that is just a huge mismatch for us, with Matt Featherston covering a much faster Jordan Shipley. While I think our seconday will be able to stay with texas' receivers early on, and the return of Trent Hunter certainly helps us, I think our weak pass rush and inability of our LBs to cover leaves us very vulnerable to texas' passing game.
Advantage: texas
Overall: texas Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
texas looks like they will be able to be very effective running the ball on us, and they should be able to exploit the middle of our defense with their passing game. The last two games between these teams arguably turned on a failure to execute in a short yardage situation by texas, so we'll have to see if that happens again tomorrow.
Advantage: texas
Special Teams: A&M boasts the better kick returner between the two squads in Cyrus Gray, who will receive some serious all-conference consideration. A&M also boasts the better punter in Justin Brantly, who should win all-conference easily. texas has shown some weakness on kickoff coverages this season, but A&M also tackles poorly on special teams.
Advantage: A&M
Overall: texas has the advantage in their offense against our defense, and their defense against our offense. We need to be able to protect Jerrod Johnson long enough to let the passing game develop to take advantage of our one strength on offense, and exploit their major weakness on defense. We will also need some terrific special teams play to shorten the field, and make it easier for us to score. This is a rivalry game, though, so while texas has many advantages going into this game, we have the benefit of knowing this is our last game of the season and we have nothing to lose, so we can let it all hang out on every play.
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