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Baylor Preview

I'm sure there are some Aggies who are looking at Baylor's 4-6 record so far this season and thinking they'll be no problem for us on Saturday. I'm sure there are some fans who think because Robert Griffin is no longer leading Baylor's offense, they aren't much of a threat to beat us in College Station. We can't afford that kind of overconfidence. We're not good enough to overlook anyone.

The most important thing we need to do against Baylor is experience some offensive success early and jump out to an early lead. Baylor's defense isn't incredible, but they haven't given up an offensive touchdown in the last three games in the second half. This means that their hafltime adjustments are working, and it also means that they don't quit despite being behind.

Baylor's offense is led by redshirt freshman Nick Florence, who has poassed for 1609 yards, 6 TDs, and 7 interceptions since taking over for Robert Griffin. Florence is a decent quarterback, despite his numbers, who can hurt us through the air and on the ground. Getting pressure on Florence and sacking him a few times is imperative. Baylor's passing game depends heavily on WR screens and bubble screens, which is the bane of our defense's existence. We need to be disciplined, get off the blocking receiver, and make the tackle. It would also help if we didn't play zone all game, but that is a scheme issue.

The two Baylor players who worry me the most are wide receivers Kendall Wright and David Gettis. Both are terrific athletes who make plays with the ball in their hands. Baylor will use Wright on Jet sweeps to stretch the defense laterally. RB Jay Finley isn't a burner, but he is effective. He ripped us apart last year in Waco.

Defensively, LB Joe Pawelek is the main person we need to be aware of. Pawelek leads the team in tackles, sacks, and is tied for the team lead in tackles for loss. He is simply a playmaker. One Baylor defender who I think is overrated is safety Jordan Lake, who I think we can take advantage of in the passing game. I think Lake is overrated in his coverage abilities, and Uzoma Nwachukwu and Jeff Fuller should be able to beat him deep, assuming we are able to get the ball to them.  up about 167 yards per game rushing, so we should be able to run the ball on them, especially if we can block Pawelek, and go off-tackle. Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray should be able to have a good day.

If we do what we're supposed to do, we should be able to beat Baylor, earn our sixth win, and attain bowl eligibility. We need to start out fast on offense, put some points on the board, and put pressure on their offense to keep up with us in the early going. This will allow us to run the ball, run the clock, and control the game in the second half. If we do what we need to do, we will win the game.  

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Pawelek is a threat to intercept the ball. We just need to run the ball well and have a boring day on special teams.

by miketag on Nov 18, 2009 6:59 PM CST via mobile reply actions  

RE: We're not good enough to overlook anyone

Absolutely agreed. IMO the key will be how our O-line plays. In the games where the O-line has gotten pushed around, we’ve looked terrible. The stats say the Baylor doesn’t have a strong front seven, as they rank pretty low in rush D, sacks, and TFL. They also aren’t very adept at getting off the field, as they allow opponents to convert 3rd downs 45% of the time.

Your point about their scoring defense might be a bit of a mirage. Minus their win against Mizzou, Baylor has fallen pretty far behind in the first half of most games; opposing teams have likely shut down their offense in the second half as they just try to make time work against the Bears. Still, it’s an impressive feat and I agree that we need to start strong offensively.

One more thought: While Baylor’s D doesn’t look strong, our D doesn’t rank much better in most of the same categories (sacks being the obvious difference). This is why our O-line has got to play well and allow us to execute our offense. We can’t count on our defense or special teams to help us win. This should be obvious to anyone paying attention, but it needs to be said: the offense will have to do most of the work.

by Pure Chapman on Nov 19, 2009 9:45 AM CST reply actions  

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