Predicting The Big 12 Bowls

by Beergut on Dec 15, 2009 7:49 AM CST

These are just my gut predictions on who will win each bowl game, without doing any serious analysis:

Independence Bowl, Aggies vs Georgia: I think Georgia wins this one by ten. I am worried we will play them tough, but we'll be trailing by a field goal late in the game and they'll tack on one more score to win it by double-digits.
Holiday Bowl, Nebraska vs Arizona: I think this will be a close one, with Arizona possibly pulling it out by a late field goal to win by one or two points. Nebraska simply has to do something with their offense; if they can move the ball at all on offense, they will win easily.
Sun Bowl, Oklahoma vs Stanford: This should actually be a very competitive game, but I think Oklahoma will eventually pull away and win it by 10 points. OU's defensive line will help slow down Toby Gerhart.
Texas Bowl, Missouri vs Navy: Missouri will win this one by two TDs, if not more. Missouri will struggle stopping Navy's option offense, but Navy won't be able to stop Danario Alexander, who will have a monster game.
Insight Bowl, Iowa State vs Minnesota: I like Iowa State to pull the upset in this game. I have nothing to base this on other than the fact that I think Paul Rhoads is an outstanding coach who will have his team ready to play.
Cotton Bowl, Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss: Assuming Zac Robinson is healthy, this one probably won't be close. Dexter McCluster for Mississippi is a helluva player, but expect OSU to win this one.
Alamo Bowl, Texas Tech vs Michigan State: I don't like Leach's decision to start Taylor Potts, and Tech ended the season with a whimper, almost losing to Baylor. However, Michigan State has off-the-field issues that is distracting them, and I think Tech will be motivated by last year's embarrassment in Dallas. Tech wins by 7.
BCS National Championship Game, texas vs Alabama: This game will feature two terrific defenses playing against two competent but not stellar offenses. When you have a game which features two very good defenses, the initial team to pick is the team with the better running game. texas doesn't have a dependable running game, Alabama's offense is their running game, and they have the offensive line to make some holes against Lamarr Houston, Sam Acho, and the other members of texas' defensive front. Alabama's offensive line will wear down texas' defense, and they'll win the game by at least ten points.

Those are my bowl predictions for all the Big 12 teams in bowls. I have us going 4-3 as a conference in our bowl games. What do you think?

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Michigan State’s passing defense is beyond abysmal, so as long as you’re not giving more than ten I’d have to say it’s the one “bet ’til your hands bleed” lock of the bowl season. Tech may start out slow, but in the second half they’ll be able to call their own score.

by HawkeyedFrog on Dec 15, 2009 9:07 AM CST reply actions

I think Ole Miss beats OSU going away

by miketag on Dec 15, 2009 4:46 PM CST via mobile reply actions

I think

the teams who might lose would be us, OU, and Texas. Obviously if Nebraska can field a high school offense they will win, but right now that seems unlikely so that one may be close. I hope all of them win and I think there is a decent possibility the big 12 wins all of its bowl games. By decent I mean 30% chance.

by the12thman11 on Dec 15, 2009 5:13 PM CST reply actions

I hope tu loses

by miketag on Dec 15, 2009 8:42 PM CST via mobile up reply actions

aww, i hope you win

by Displaced Longhorn on Dec 16, 2009 11:30 AM CST up reply actions

Bowls

If the Aggie offense can play against Georgia the way they played against Texas, they can most definitely win the game by a couple of scores.

My bookie has Mizzou at -6.5 and Tech at -8. I think they will both handily cover. OU should cover -8 against Stanford, but for some reason I am just not in love with the spread. It might have a lot to do with Stanford hype though. But it could also have a lot to do with OU inconsistency. OSU/Ole Miss has potential to be the best game out of any Big XII bowl (barring an offensive shootout between A&M/Georgia). Nebraska needs to show up with a better than high school offense to beat Arizona in San Diego. I agree with littlelonghorngirl that a defensive game favors Texas in the BCS championship game.

Outside of the Big XII, I am interested in seeing Dan LeFevour in his last CFB game. He could be the real deal in the NFL. Just wish that the MAC wasn’t stuck in such a lousy bowl with the Sunbelt for their champion. The Hawaii bowl (Nevada/SMU) ought to be a huge scoring game (total is 73.5 right now). The Chik-Fil-A bowl (Tennessee and Virginia Tech) is probably the most intriguing non-BCS bowl matchup. If we are to believe Stewart Mandel with cnnsi.com, the only reason PSU can possibly beat LSU is because LSU’s starting running back is injured. The Rose Bowl is probably the best game on paper this bowl season. Boise/TCU should be a good game to watch, though I think it would be much more interesting to see them playing other teams.

The Orange Bowl may be the most boring game of the year, barring Nebraska shutting down Arizona and then struggling on offense in the Holiday.

by ambivalent on Dec 17, 2009 10:44 AM CST reply actions