Upset Of The Year In The 2009 Big 12 Football Season?

Baylor over Texas Tech on November 28 in Arlington, TX is my early pick for Big 12 Upset of the Year (as noted in the comments, the game will be in Arlington, not in Waco). Consider that Tech will be coming off of back-to-back games against the Oklahoma schools, visiting Oklahoma State on November 14 and Oklahoma traveling to Lubbock on November 21, and you can see fatigue really setting in for this Tech team. I can see Tech losing both of those games, and in ugly fashion, and you have the beginnings for the makings of an upset when Tech heads to Arlington. Baylor will be coming off of games against texas (November 14, Waco) and A&M (November 21, College Station), so they may be on a two-game losing streak of their own, too. However, Baylor will have the mental advantage in this game, because they will be playing for a possible bowl appearance.

November 28 might be the last game of the season for Baylor, if they do not qualify for a bowl. Their team and their fans will be pumped to send their seniors out as winners, and win their final game. If Baylor only has four wins coming into this game, this will be the final game of the season for Baylor, and will be their de facto bowl game. If they have five wins, this will be their bowl qualifier game, which will pump their players up even more.

Add in the fact that Baylor very nearly beat Tech in Lubbock last season on their senior day, and you can see why an upset looks likely. Last season's Tech team looks to be better than the 2009 version, simply because there isn't a difference maker like Michael Crabtree for the opposing defense to have to contend with this year. Crabtree's absence alone makes Tech easier to defend.

Baylor will be returning their offensive triumvirate of Robert Griffin, Jay Finley, and Kendall Wright, so they should have the offensive firepower to keep the pressure on Tech's defense. Tech has no answer for Robert Griffin on defense, but that isn't saying much, because there really isn't an answer for an eletric talent like Griffin. You just hope to contain him, force a bad decision or two, and hope one of his teammates fumbles the ball enough times for your offense to keep the ball out of his hands. Griffin had over 2000 yds passing and 800 yds rushing last season, solidifying his position as the most dangerous dual-threat QB in the nation. Griffin also has a 5-1 TD:INT ratio, something most QBs only dream of. Finley led the Bears in rushing last season, with 149 carries for 895 yds, or 5.8 yards per carry. Wright was their best receiver, leading the team with 50 receptions for 649 yds and 5 TDs. Tech lost their most dangerous pass-rusher when DE McKinner Dixon failed out of school, so Griffin should have more time to operate. If he can spread the ball around between Wright, Finley, and himself, the Baylor offense can outscore Tech.

Baylor's defense gave up a pedestrian 393.2 yds of total offense last season, but were able to hold Tech under that number, giving up only 365 yds total offense, including just 309 yds passing. Baylor's defense was able to hold Tech's running game to a paltry 56 yds total. If they can get a similar defensive effort in Waco this year, I think they upset Tech.

Baylor over Tech is my pick for upset of the year in the Big 12 in 2009. What is yours?