The Best QB In The Big 12 Is....Robert Griffin?
by Beergut on Jul 22, 2009 5:51 AM CDT
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PrintSo I am deciding who to pick for the Big 12 all-conference pre-season team at quarterback, and I'm looking at the usual suspects in Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Zac Robinson. Bradford seems to be a shoe-in for my vote, but I decide to do a little research on the stats for the other quarterbacks in the league. What I find out surprises me.
Simply put, Robert Griffin of Baylor may have had the best year for a true freshman quarterback, ever. Griffin completed 60% of his passes, going 160-267 for 15 TDs and only 3 INT. That is a very stellar 5:1 TD:INT ratio.
Griffin passed for 2,093 yds while also rushing for 843 yds on 173 attempts (4.9 yds per carry) and 13 TDs. Of course, his rushing stats are reduced by the sacks he took on the year; he actually rushed for 1,118 yds before taking out losses (he was sacked 28 times). As a comparison, Ohio State's Terelle Pryor was 100/165 passing (61%) for 1,311 yds with 12 TDs and 4 INTs. Pryor finished the season with 631 yds rushing on 139 carries (4.5 ypc) and 6 TDs.
The gold standard for dual-threat run-pass freshman QBs is Michael Vick, who led Virginia Tech to a berth in the BCS championship game against Florida State as a redshirt freshman. Vick was 90/153 passing ( 59%) for 1,840 yds with 12 TDs and 5 INTs in 1999. Vick had 110 carries for 580 yds and 8 TDs. It is worth noting that Vick's stellar freshman campaign came after a redshirt season to learn the offense, and yet his stats don't come close to matching what Griffin did. It is also worth noting that Griffin was the youngest starting QB in the NCAA last season, playing at only 18 yrs old.
If I look at Sam Bradford's statistics as a redshirt freshman, I see that he was 237/341 passing (70%) for 3,121 yds with 36 TDs and 8 INTs. While these are important numbers, it is important to note two things: Bradford had a redshirt year, a luxury not afford Griffin, and Bradford was surrounded with some pretty stellar talent, playing on a team that would win a second-consecutive Big 12 title his freshman season.
Colt McCoy was 217/318 passing (68%) for 2,570 yds with 29 TDs and 7 INTs as a redshirt freshman. McCoy was also surrounded by talented teammates, and was more of a game-manager than a difference-maker his freshman season. It should be noted that even when McCoy went down with an injury aganst Kansas State in the 11th game of the season, true freshman backup Jevan Snead was able to come in and lead the offense to 5 TDs. With Jamaal Charles, Jermichael Finley, Quan Cosby, Jordan Shipley, and Limas Sweed, that texas offense had some star-talent at the skill positions. McCoy didn't have to be a difference-maker on offense, he just had to not make mistakes, and let his skill position players do their job.
Contrast the talent that McCoy and Bradford had surrounding them as redshirt freshmen with what Robert Griffin had around him last season at Baylor, and you'll see that their simply is no comparison. Bradford had DeMarco Murray, Juaquin Inglesias, and Jermaine Gresham; McCoy had Finley, Shipley, and Cosby; Griffin has Jay Finley and Kendall Wright. Who? Exactly. Wright and Finley are solid players (I think Wright will be All-Big 12 before he leaves Waco, he has the potential to be very, very good), but they aren't the All-America caliber of talent that surrounded McCoy or Bradford when they were in their first seasons as starters.
Still not convinced Griffin is beyond spectacular for what he accomplished last season? Okay, let's look at some more stats: 135/256, 53% completion percentage, 1749 yds, 7 TDs, 13 INTs. Whose stats are those? Try Matt Stafford, from his true freshman year at Georgia. You know, the same Matt Stafford who was the #1 pick in the NFL Draft this past April?
Given his performance last season as a true freshman, with only one spring practice and summer two-a-days under his belt, with a totally new offense to learn, it is scary to think about what Griffin might do as a sophomore, with his team a year older and a year more experienced in the offense. Griffin might very well have a 3000/1000 season, a year where he breaks 3000 yds passing and 1000 yds rushing. If he does that, I think coaches and media members will have no choice but to name him first team All-Big 12 QB.
Despite the media hype for Bradford and McCoy, if you look at what Griffin accomplished at Baylor last season, I think you have to pick him over both of them for the top QB in conference. If you put Bradford or McCoy on Baylor's team last season, is Baylor as successful as they were with Griffin at QB? I think the answer is an unequivocal "NO". If you put Griffin on texas or Oklahoma last season, are his stats the same or better than they were at Baylor? I think everyone would agree the answer is 'yes'. If you put Griffin on texas or Oklahoma last season, do they have a better team than they fielded last season? Well, Tech almost lost to Baylor in Lubbock with Griffin running wild, so I think we can safely project that texas would have beaten Tech and eliminated their one loss for the season if Griffin was guiding their offense. I also think we'd be talking about how Oklahoma set a record for triple digit scores in the modern era, and how to remain sportsmanlike when your offense is literally unstoppable, following their national championship season and blowout wn over Florida.
So, is Robert Griffin the best QB in the Big 12? I think there is a very good argument to be made that he is.
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I would argue that Griffin benefited from playing in the worst defensive year in conference history. We were like the WAC of old last season. Michael Vick and Pryor were asked to manage the game as freshmen and not turn the ball over. You make a good argument for Griffin being the top QB in the conference. I would still pick Bradford though.
by miketag on Jul 22, 2009 11:04 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
No.
Griffin may be better statistically than Bradford, Colt, etc. were as freshmen, but he is definitely not the best QB in the Big 12. Maybe in a year or two, but not now.
If you were arguing that Griffin has the biggest upside of any freshman QB in recent Big 12 memory, then I would say he definitely is up there. But a quick look at last years statistics (Bradford- 328-483,4720 yds, 50 TDs, 8 INTs & Colt- 332-433, 3859, 34 TDs, 8 INTs) shows clearly there are at least two more talented QB’s currently in the league.
He is an incredibly talented kid that I fully expect to see on Sundays in a few years. However, if you asked a coach who they would want to have the ball with the game on the line at the end of the 4th quarter, I think you’d be hard pressed to find anyone who would pick Griffin over Bradford or Colt.
by Prodigious Clout on Jul 22, 2009 11:11 AM CDT reply actions
I don’t know. In the 4th quarter against tired legs, Griffin’s mobility might make me choose him over anyone else in the conference
by miketag on Jul 22, 2009 11:21 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
That’s definitely a valid point. The more I look at him though, the more I think Sam/Colt is the way to go. If you look at Griffin’s games vs. Texas (6-19, 71 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT) and OU (11-26, 75 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT), plus his 4th Quarter interception vs. Tech, it is apparent that he just isn’t quite ready yet to hang with the big boys passing-wise. The good teams would be able to plan for his ridiculous running ability knowing this.
Again, I think in two years he may be just as good or better than Sam and Colt are now. But, as for today, I do not think he is currently the best.
by Prodigious Clout on Jul 22, 2009 11:33 AM CDT reply actions
Congrats to Griffin and Baylor fans on his amazing freshman season. Obviously it was a great one, but take the proven winners over a prospect. Allow Griffin to mature and see how his sophomore campaign winds up before declaring him the best QB in the Big XII or the savior of Baylor football. He may not even wind up playing his senior season with Baylor.
The Big XII has 2 of the best QBs in all the nation… barring some catastrophe for either team, Robert Griffin is not going to be named conference all-american
by Displaced Longhorn on Jul 22, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions
this isn't about who the media is going to pick
this is about who is the best QB in the Big 12, period
the media is going to pick the QB of the winningest team or the one who has the gaudiest stats
Griffin might very well have a 3000/1000 season, a year where he breaks 3000 yds passing and 1000 yds rushing. If he does that, I think coaches and media members will have no choice but to name him first team All-Big 12 QB.
well then I don’t know who you’re talking about here….
now, does he have potential to be a great qb, or at least a great college qb? absolutely. but is he going to be better than mccoy/bradford next year? absolutely not. when you see what those guys have put together over the last 2, 3 years, you simply can’t compare Griffin based on one year worth of play.
he gave solid play, made some passes, ran for some yards, but you can’t simply say “look at mccoy, look at bradford, they have good teams around them, therefore, robert griffin is better”.
griffin is not likely to come out of the big12 with better stats, better draft pick, or more success in the NFL. if he does, great, props to him. but it’s not likely, and basing your assessment on his freshman season (as you showed with stafford) doesn’t mean jack shit 4 years later.
by Displaced Longhorn on Jul 23, 2009 12:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I think that if you look at it statistically, an argument can be made that Griffin is the best. I think Bradford is the best QB in the conference though.
by miketag on Jul 23, 2009 2:30 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
actually
my point was, if you take Griffin away from Baylor and put in Bradford or McCoy, are they better? No.
If you put Griffin on texas or OU’s team last season, are they the same or better? Yes.
I’m not trying to discount what McCoy or Bradford did last season, I just think when you have a season like Griffin did as a true freshman, and no one else has come close to accomplishing that, the sky is the limit on your potential.
You are asking me to compare someone who started as an 18 yr old at the most difficult position to play on the field to two people who are in their third and fourth season in college, respectively.
I never asked you to compare the 3 players, you wrote this entire article of your own volition. You’re basing your opinion on solid freshman stats and potential, while I’m basing my opinion on what’s already been accomplished.
You do make a compelling argument that Robert Griffin’s talent and impact on the team are highly underrated and understated, but I just can’t agree with the conclusion you come to… or almost come to.
by Displaced Longhorn on Jul 24, 2009 1:58 AM CDT up reply actions
you can’t simply say "look at mccoy, look at bradford, they have good teams around them, therefore, robert griffin is better".
I was comparing Bradford as a redshirt freshman and McCoy as a redshirt freshman to Griffin as a true freshman; the fact that both had redshirt years while Griffin started in year one makes a comparison difficult, as does the fact that Griffin started on a less-talented team than Bradford or McCoy when they were freshmen. I wasn’t saying, look at those two, they’re not good, they’re just products of great players around them, I was saying, look at what they did as freshmen, look what he did as a freshman, their accomplishments as freshmen is tempered b/c of their surrounding talent.
I don't think so
Teams will figure out how to exploit him. If they can contain him, force him to make more throws and do less running, some of these stats will change.
Shoe-in?
The correct spelling is shoo-in, not shoe-in.
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