SB Nation's LSU blog And The Valley Shook recently did a story looking at Big 12 QBs from last season. Basically, Richard Pittman and some other ATVS writers created a new Quarterback Productivity Index, an index which they believe works better than the commonly used passer rating statistic. Using the ATVSQBPI, they ranked the SEC quarterbacks from last season, then they went ahead and ranked the Big 12 quarterbacks from last season. As might be expected, some of the rankings for the Big 12 quarterbacks were off the charts. If you could say that any QBPI of 7 or above was damn good, well, the Big 12 had nine QBs with the QBPI of above 7, or nine damn good quarterbacks. By comparison, the SEC only had three. (Jerrod Johnson was a lowly 6.50, which sounds terrible until you consider the fact that his stats were hurt by the number of sacks he took last season (30), which count against him in rushing yards.) The discussion in the comments then moved on to ask why there was such a discrepancy in numbers between the two conferences, and if the discrepancy was possibly because of offensive schemes.

From Displaced Tiger:

QB productivity difference is shocking.

Could the big difference in productivity between SEC and Big XII qbs be due to differences in the offensive schemes employed by the schools in each conference? (If such a scheme difference actually exists?)

Richard Pittman replies:

If the difference is one of offensive scheme..

then the SEC should be emulating it. You can’t argue with production. I think it’s more a difference of talent, both at QB and on the defensive side of the ball.

I then jump in:

I think it is mainly a scheme issue

Most Big 12 teams employ some type of spread offense (spare me your "the spread won’t work in the SEC" argument, Florida has disproved that myth), so it means defenses are seeing mostly 10 personnel all game long. SEC teams usually employ more of a pro-set on offense, so you see more 21 personnel in games. Having to worry about covering and stopping 3 athletes on a play like you do in the SEC is a hell of a lot easier than worrying about covering 5 athletes on a play, like we do in the Big 12.

The Big 12 also had a lot of experienced QBs last season: Bradford was a second-year starter, McCoy was in his third year starting, Harrell third year, Robinson second year, etc. I think the only QBs in their first year starting were Robert Griffin, Jerrod Johnson, and Austen Arnaud. Coincidently, they are among the bottom of your rankings.

Cody Johnson Hawkins was a second-year starter who ended up splitting time with another QB, so that effected his stats.

Richard replies to me:

I don't think it's purely a question of offensive scheme..

if it was, every SEC team should adopt a Big 12 like offensive scheme. Those Big 12 offenses were much more productive. The SEC teams aren’t going to say, "We know the Big 12 spreads got better production, but we’re going with a pro style because… because we want to." They’re rational actors and will do what is best for their teams. It’s possible those teams sacrificed effective running for effective passing, while the SEC coaches went for more of a balance. I haven’t looked at those statistics, but I don’t seem to recall the SEC’s rushing attacks being all that much better than the Big 12’s (outside of Texas, which did not have any productive running backs). I think the hyper-inflated Big 12 numbers are more a matter of talent than of of scheme, and I mean talent both at quarterback and on defense.

And I do some research and make a lengthly reply back:

I'm not so sure Big 12 offenses sacrificed rushing for passing

because the best rushing team in the conference (Oklahoma State) is also it’s most balanced offense, but they are also a spread team. Some teams ran the ball better than others, but that was also mainly due to skill on their offensive line. Texas A&M, for instance, had a putrid offensive line last season, and it reflected in both our passing and rushing stats, as we couldn’t run block well, and we gave up a ton of sacks. Baylor and texas were both led in rushing by their QBs, so their rushing stats are a little misleading. Baylor has a freak of nature at QB named Robert Griffin (if you haven’t heard of him, he makes Russell Shepard look slow), and he single-handedly kept Baylor in games with his feet and his arm. texas had a good passing game, so defenses concerned with coverage left all sorts of lanes open for Colt McCoy to run in on broken plays.

I would also argue that the Big 12 benefitted from having the best WRs in the nation playing in our conference. Your defensive stats will look bad when you’re trying to stop Michael Crabtree or Dez Bryant or Jeremy Maclin every weekend. We also had the pleasure of trying to shut down the best TE in the nation in Jermaine Gresham, and arguably the second best TE in the nation in Chase Coffman (who was really just a big inside receiver in Missouri’s spread offense).

I would say the best WR in the SEC last season was Percy Harvin, and he spent half his time running the ball; second best was probably Julio Jones or Brandon Lafell. Jones plays in a ground-bound offense, while Lafell plays in a balanced attack. Neither of those two are utilized as often as good receivers are in the Big 12.

Take a look at the Big 12 individual stats and the SEC individual stats, and compare receptions and yards of the top receivers in both conferences. There isn’t a single 1000 yard receiver in the SEC; 9 of the top 12 receivers in the Big 12 gained over 1000 yds. texas and Kansas both had TWO receivers on their respective teams surpass 1000 yds.

Also, consider the number of receptions per player; the most receptions for an SEC receiver was 63 by Lafell, the least among the receptions leaders for the Big 12 was 67 for Brandon Banks of KSU. The Big 12 had six WRs with 90 or more catches in 2008, with one (Jeremy Maclin) surpassing 100 receptions. Eight of the top twelve receivers in the Big 12, either judging by receptions per game or yds per game, had 80 or more receptions. That means over two-thirds of the conferences leading receivers were constant targets in their respective offenses. By contrast, only two of the top ten receivers in the SEC (judging by receptions per game) have over 60 receptions, and seven of the top ten have over 50 receptions. I think it is safe to say that SEC offenses were not as committed to passing the ball as Big 12 offenses were.

If you look at rushing statistics, the SEC boasts five RBs in their top 10 rushers who carried the ball 190 or more times; the Big 12 only has two. The top 3 rushers in the SEC carried the ball 250, 207, and 233 times, respectively; the top 3 rushers in the Big 12 carried the ball 241, 217, and 179 times, respectively. I think it is safe ot say that the SEC was a lot more committed to a systematic approach of running the ball than the Big 12 was.

Also, you will notice that in the SEC individual rushers list, you have only one school with two players in the top ten rushers: Alabama with Glen Coffee and Mark Ingram. In the Big 12, you have three pairs of teammates listed among the top twelve rushers, with Chris Brown and Demarco Murray representing OU, Jay Finley and Robert Griffin representing Baylor, and Baron Batch and Shannon Woods representing Texas Tech. I think this speaks to systemic differences in the offenses, where Big 12 schools are featuring rotating two backs in the backfield in 10 personnel, and splitting up the carries, to spread out the production, while the SEC seems to be putting the ball in the hands of one player, putting him behind a fullback, and hammering him at the line play after play.

There is also the fact that I think Big 12 offenses tend to operate from the shotgun, with a QB taking a direct snap every play, more than they do under center, taking an indirect snap. From what I’ve seen of most SEC offenses, the majority of the teams put their QB under center, and make him take an indirect snap. Why is this important? Because the shotgun gives the QB more time in the pocket, and makes it more difficult for the pass rush to get to him before he gets off the pass, while a QB dropping back from under center is moving back at the same time the pass rush is coming upfield, giving him less time to get a pass off.

Consider that the worst passing offense in the Big 12 was Baylor, who averaged a paltry 180.7 yds per game; that would have ranked as the seventh best passing attack in the SEC, behind LSU. The best passing offense in the SEC (Georgia) averaged 277 yds per game through the air; that would have been seventh best in the Big 12. I think any objective fan would agree that an offense that averages less than 200 yds passing per game is a poor passing offense; six SEC teams (or half the conference) average less than 200 yds passing per game. There are two offenses in the Big 12 that average less than 200 yds per game, and one of them (Baylor) had a dual threat QB who was equally as effective on his feet as he was with his arm, and also happened to be a true freshman. The other school (Colorado) played musical chairs at QB all season long, and was just poor overall on offense.

As to the question of why SEC offenses won’t switch to a spread scheme, I think part of it is because some of them truly believe the myth that the spread won’t work in the SEC, because the defenses are too fast. Florida has proven that myth to be false, though, and with Arkansas and Mississippi State now installing the spread offense, I think you’ll see that changing. I also think that there is a cultural influence at work here; I think SEC fans in general love power football, they love a tough running game against a tough defense, and the coaches are just giving them what they want.

I still contend that the Big 12 has superior QBs to the SEC, and that is what contributed to our obscene offensive numbers as a conference last year, and also explains why we have a very high average QBPI. With eight of the QBs on that list returning this year, we'll see if those obscene numbers continue. If my theory about elite WRs contributing to the numbers is correct, we should see a slight fall in the passing numbers this year, and a rise in the defensive rankings for Big 12 defenses.