The Ags open the season at 6 PM on Saturday, September 5th against the University of New Mexico Lobos. UNM had an identical record to A&M last season going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in conference. UNM's head coach Rocky Long stepped down at the end of last year and Illinois offensive coordinator Mike Locksley was hired as the HC. You can get more info on Locksley from the pregame release from UNM.

 

The Lobos return seven starters on offense (if you do not count both of their QBs who started last year) and three starters on defense. On offense I expect UNM to look a lot like the University of Illinois teams that Locksley coached. I expect to see a zone read spread attack. It will probably mirror the Ags offense in a lot of ways, as I expect us to employ some zone read and spread this year. On defense UNM is reportedly moving to more of a traditional 4-3 alignment after running Long's 33 stack for the past 11 years. 

QB Donovan Porterie returns for his senior season to lead the Lobos offense. Porterie passed for over 3000 yds as a sophomore. He was injured after four games last season and missed the rest of the year. Agasint the Ags last year, Portarie was 22-35 passing for 154 yards with two interceptions. He also had 46 yds rushing. He is a pass first QB who is mobile. Portarie completes a high percentage of his passes. Hopefully we will be able to pressure him and force him into turnovers like last year.

The Lobos graduated Rodney Ferguson at RB. He rushed 19 times for 135 yards against A&M last September. We really had no answer for him. Ferguson is replaced by 6'0 239 pound sophomore James Wright who is from Dallas. Wright rushed for 348 yds and 2 TDs last season while averaging 6.4 yds per carry. If we can control Wright in the run game then Porterie will be much less effective in the zone read.

UNM returns three of their starting OL and both starting WRs. The left side of the Lobo OL will be new, as they replace their starting LT and LG. Sylvester Hatten gets the nod at LT and he has five career starts. He will be tasked with keeping Von Miller in check. If the Ags can control the run game and force the Lobos to become one dimensional, then Miller should have a big game.

My goal for the Aggie defense is to hold the Lobos to under 350 total yards. I honestly think we should be able to do this because Ferguson graduated. Their running game should not be as good and it will be harder for Porterie to set up his play action passes. I expect Porterie to have some success with short passes. Our young secondary must keep from getting discouraged because Porterie will likely complete a lot of short passes. We just need to tackle well and make the plays that are there in order to get their offense off the field.

UNM returns only three starters on defense. Two of them are safeties. We should have success both passing and in the running game against UNM as this staff tries to install their new system. Senior LB Clint McPeek led the Lobos with 103 tackles with 4.5 TFLs last season. Safety Ian Clark played the "Lobo" position for UNM last season and had 57 tackles with 4 sacks. He is one of the nations best punt returners who averaged 19.7 yards per return last season. At 6' 215 with 4.5 speed he is someone we must contain on special teams.

Our goals on offense should be to gain at least 400 total yards and limit turnovers to two or less. I am hoping for 150+ yards rushing in this game. If we cannot move the ball on this defense then that does not bode well for the rest of the season. UNM is replacing almost all of their starters and is running a new system. After the 1st quarter butterflies get out of the way, I expect us to move the ball with relative ease from the second quarter on. I expect to see Jerrod Johnson and Jeff Fuller picking this secondary apart. Look for big games from Fuller, McCoy, and Cyrus Gray in the passing game. I expect Gray and Christine Michael to each get 40-50 yards rushing. I am hoping to see Uzoma Nwachukwu and Kenric McNeal make significant contributions but expect them to drop some passes early and maybe end the game with a reception each.

I expect the Ags to win this game somewhere in the neighborhood of 30-17. We are going to play a lot of freshmen and I expect typical freshmen mistakes to hold us back. Dropped passes, a fumble here or there, and missed tackles. I am just hoping we can limit the turnovers and come away with a solid win. This game could go a long way towards getting our team some confidence in the running game and in our OL. I would love to see a blowout so we could get a look at a lot of players. I do expect Sherman to substitute liberally in the second half no matter what the score is. We simply need to get some game action for a lot of players so we will know what we have going into conference play.