June Look At Big 12 South

Just watched the Fox Sports previews of all the teams in the Big 12 South. Figured I would throw a few early thoughts out there before I went to the store in search of the various preseason mags. We have seen a lot of turnover this off season in coaches, and marquee players in the South division. I think this will result in one of the more wide open races in recent memory.

A few years ago when Mike Stoops left to become the HC at Arizona, it resulted in the defense losing its championship swagger. Last year, it appeared the entire team lost its swagger. OU no longer walked on an opposing field like they owned the place. They were vulnerable and struggled on offense. The big question that I have is whether Landry Jones is a true difference maker at QB. He does not seem to have a big arm to me. He also does not have that extra spark that makes him seem special to me. I think he is simply a place holder until they can find someone better. Much is made of the season Ryan Broyles had last year. He is a heck of a WR, but the only game he truly dominated was against Stanford. He needs to show up in every game before anyone can start talking about him being the best WR in the country. The biggest positive for OU is that it will be virtually impossible to have as many injuries as they had last season. The OL should be more consistent because I am going to go out on a limb and predict they do not start 10 different combinations of OL as they did last season. The defense loses Gerald McCoy who was a great player. IMO their best player on defense the past two years is Travis Lewis and he returns. Stoops talked about Ronnell Lewis' athleticism the same was he once talked about DT Tommie Harris. We will see if he can measure up to those accolades on the field. We will see if Jamarkus McFarland can live up to his recruiting hype on the field. If not, Casey Walker should fill in fine at NG. OU really needs Jaz Reynolds to step up at WR to take the pressure off Broyles. Demarco Murray should again me solid to amazing at RB until he gets injured again. Jermie Calhoun does nothing for me. OU is a young team with a lot of young players who got a lot of experience last season because a perfect storm of injuries. They need those youngsters to step up in a big way this season in order to get back to their championship level of play. I am just not convinced that will happen this season and see a 9-3 type season. 

OSU

OSU's biggest loss is Qb Zach Robinson. While he never played big in big games, he was a consistently good QB who was instrumental in OSU becoming a 9 win team last year. OSU has to replace 4 of their starting OL and a large part of their defense. OSU is going to more of a Texas Tech style offense by bringing in Dana Holgerson from UH. I am not sure I agree with this strategy with Brandon Weeden at QB. Kendall Hunter is OSU's best returning player on offense and appears healthy. I would run the ball and play action pass all day long. Of course, the spread offense should help the four new OL starters they have. I think this season will be a struggle on offense for OSU as they adjust to a new system and a new QB (who I am not sure is that good in the first place). They return Orie Lemon on defense but that is about it. Hubert Anyiam should put up some good numbers at WR this year. I also expect Josh Cooper to excel in the spread. This looks like a 6-6 or 7-5 team to me. If Billy Young's defense can force a lot of turnovers, then I can see OSU getting 8 wins but that is about it.

BU

Baylor just lost the best LB they have had in a decade in Joe Pawelek. His talents were wasted in another losing campaign. When Robert Griffin went down last year, the season went with him. The question is, would it have mattered? Griffin was a difference maker as a freshman because of his running ability. The coaches tried to protect him by keeping him in the pocket more last year. Their pass offense was very horizontal featuring a bunch of screens. The offense did not impress during the loss to UConn. Nick Florence actually threw the ball vertically better than Griffin did. The problem was that BU had no running game and no defense. Griffin is back but is nowhere near 100 percent. It takes two years to completely heal from an ACL. From the spring footage that I saw, Griffin was clearly favoring his injured knee. He has not run track in two years and has added 15 pounds to his frame. I am going to go out on a limb and predict that he does not show the kind of explosive speed that he had a s a freshman. A healthy Jay Finley should make a difference in the running game. Kendall Wright is a junior and one of the better WRs in the conference. Phil Taylor received a lot of hype in Waco but proceeded to be a fat guy just taking up space on the DL. Art Briles has improved the talent pool in Waco and that should start to show up on defense this year especially at LB. Ahmad Dixon is a truly gifted safety who will need the admissions department to do Chinese acrobatic maneuvers to get him into school. Tyler Stephenson is fast but is a lean 160. This looks like a 5-7 team to me that misses a bowl game once again. I am just not convinced that BU can win meaningful games without Grffin at 100 percent. 

Tech

I do not care what anyone says, I will believe that Tom Tuberville is going to pass the ball 50 times a game when I see it. Tech is "tweaking" its offense and changing its defense under the new coach. I would not be surprised to see Tech fall to SMU in their season opener. New systems against an established run and shoot team is not a recipe for success. No one knows who the Tech QB is going to be because the competition in the spring was cut short when both QBs were injured. I think you have to go with Sheffield because he has the special something that helps teams win games. Taylor Potts may have a bigger arm, but I think Sheffield is more of a leader. I do think that Tuberville is serious about making the Tech defense better. He is bringing in a huge recruiting class of juco players on defense. By the end of the season, they should be a much improved unit. I like the move of Brian Duncan to OLB. Barron Batch is a nice RB and will benefit from more touches running the ball. I really like Alex Torres at WR and expect him to lead Tech in receiving again. Detron Lewis is also a heck of a WR. Will be interesting to see how many passes they get to see in this offense. Colby Whitlock is the most talented DL on Tech's roster. It will be interesting to see if Tuberville can get him to play to his potential. Tech is a 7-5 or 8-4 team. There will be much whining and gnashing of teeth if they open the season with a loss to SMU then proceed to lose at home to tu a couple of weeks later. A lot of unknowns with this team right now. 

tu

The defense should be stout again, but the offense will not score as much. You do not lose Jordan Shipley without is affecting you. tu has potentially the best group of WRs in the country, but none of them have stepped up. Desean Hales and Malcolm Williams could make life a lot easier on Garrett Gilbert, or they could be inconsistent per their history. Gilbert has a much better arm than McCoy and should be a future first round draft pick if he stays healthy. The sips seem to think that they will be able to run the ball better because they will not be running from the shotgun as much this season. I am of the opinion that it is not the RBs or the formation, it is the RB coach. tu ran the ball fine from the shotgun when Jamaal Charles was the RB. Ramonce Taylor had no problem getting yardage when he took a handoff from the shotgun. The problem with the tu running game started when Applewhite came back on campus. I just do not believe that all four of the tu RBs are that mediocre. Barrett Mathews should help immensely at TE. Would not be surprised to see him catch 40 passes from Gilbert. I expect James Kirkendoll to lead the sip receivers for the year. Marquise Goodwin and D.J. Monroe give Gilbert lots of speedy options at WR. Gilbert will struggle some as all first year starting QBs do, but his quality of play overall will be very high as you would expect for a QB coached by Greg Davis. On defense, tu loses stalwarts Lamar Houston and Earl Thomas but should once again be a top 10 defense with Boom m'er coaching them. There is a lot of talent on the tu roster and boom m'er will start the 11 best that he finds. I expect Sam Acho to have a huge year on the DL. I really like the LB trio of Norton, Robinson, and Emmanuel Acho. A lot went right last year for tu to make it to the MNC game. I just do not see them keeping that lucky streak this year. I think tu will go 9-3 with a bowl win to improve to 10-3.

A&M

I have said all along that I think this is a 9 win team. I think the OL will be improved over last season simply because we have more talent on the field. The difference in the OL at the spring game this year compared to last year was a quantum leap forward. Jerrod Johnson returns as one of the top QBs in the nation. The Aggies have the best RB tandem in the conference with Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael returning. Ryan Swope will join Easy and Jeff Fuller to form one of the top WR units in the country. The big question is whether the defense and special teams will allow the offense to lead A&M into the top 25. I have seen the overall speed of the team improve under Sherman and that should continue this season. Our secondary should be much improved with Dustin Harris starting for his second year at CB. He will be joined by Terrance Frederick and Coryell Judie in the nickel. Trent Hunter looks to rebound from a disappointing sophomore year. Steven Terrell will start opposite Hunter. LBs will be solid with Sean Porter and Von Miller wreaking havoc from the outside. Garrick Williams should be a real difference maker at the WILB position. Michael Hodges is the current starter at the MILB spot while Kyle Mangan recovers from surgery. On the DL the Ags really need Jonathan Mathis to step in and contribute right away. Patterson should be a decent NG, but we need a difference maker in there. We are still waiting to see how Kirby Ennis recovers from his torn ACL. I expect incoming freshmen Ivan Robinson to push TJE and Spencer Nealy at DE. The big question is on the special teams. Can we get of a punt, and if we do will it go more than 30 yards? All we need is for the special teams to be average this year, in order to have a 9 win season. I think this group of senior leadership and young talent will lead A&M to a 9-3 record. 

Big 12 North

In the North I predict that KU's defense will suck and will give up at least 50 points twice because Torbush is their DC. That is all.