Sunday Random Thoughts
by Beergut on Aug 8, 2010 6:06 PM CDT
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Print- Fox Sports SW has their preseason All-Big 12 teams out. I think most of it is fairly predictable, although ranking Von Miller as a DL seems to show a lack of research. Most glaring errors to me are Kyle Hix as a first-team OL (I think coaches hyping him is taking the place of actual production, and the media is too dumb to know any different), Alex Henery as second-team kicker (he should be first team punter and kicker, he's a legit candidate for both the Lou Groza and Ray Guy awards), and D.J. Monroe as first team KR. Monroe is good, but I'll take Cyrus Gray over him.
- FSSW also gives us their rankings for QBs in the State of Texas. TCU's Andy Dalton is the best QB in the State? That's when you know not to take any of the author's other picks seriously.
- This article on APR scores makes me wonder if all the talk about coaches not caring about their players' academic progress and graduation is just anecdotal evidence used to unfairly paint a whole profession. I wonder if it is possible to go back and look at what coaches' average APR scores would be before the current system was put into place, to see if there actually was a real problem, or just a few bad apples spoiling the bunch.
- I have to laugh when I read people questioning Mike Sherman's ability to recruit. In his first two classes, he already has five players (Cyrus Gray, Jeff Fuller, Uzoma Nwachukwu, Patrick Lewis, Christine Michael) who have received all-conference recognition. Add in Von Miller and Jerrod Johnson, two players who were already here when Sherman arrived, and he isn't too bad at developing talent, either.
- The USA Today Poll is out, and Texas Tech couldn't ask for a better set up, with a #4 ranked texas coming to Lubbock for the third game of the season. This means Tommy Tuberville will have a chance for a big upset to get all the Red Raiders (even the biggest Mike Leach boosters) behind him early in the season.
- Team with the best chance of moving from the unranked to the Top 10 in the early going? Notre Dame. The Irish play Purdue, Michigan, @ Michigan State, and Stanford in their first four games, which is a solid test. If Brian Kelly gets his offense moving early on, the media will quickly rally behind the Irish, and propel them up the rankings.
- texas at #4 is probably the most overrated program in the top 10. With no RB, offensive line, or proven receivers returning, they have the most questions of any top 10 team. The winner of the Virginia Tech-Boise State game will leap them in the rankings on September 7.
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Dalton is good, but Jerrod is the #2 QB in the nation behind the guy he’ll face in Arlingon this season. It’s not Dalton’s fault that TCU totally abandoned the running game after three runs up the middle and forced him to go air raid on Boise State, but he is a big part of the reason we lost that game.
Jake Locker, Terrell Pryor, and yes, Case Keenum say hello.
"Biggest mistake in DFW history?" - Bigger mistake in LSB history.
"Back in Irish's day you had to kill a man before you were taken seriously in polite society." - Aquaman56 06/25/10
Jake Locker hasn’t done anything yet, I honestly don’t see where the 1st round hype comes from.
Pryor had a great game in the Rose Bowl, but previously he was a lot more likely to arm-punt than he was to actually throw a good ball. He’s a good runner, but not so much that it makes up for the difference in production. He’s the main reason Ohio State struggled to overtime against Iowa’s backup Quarterback.
Case Keenum has great stats, but he also has great meltdowns. Tossing so many picks against Air Force was absolutely baffling.
I’d take Jerrod to back up Mallet on my All-America team.
Air Force had a top 10 defense last season.
Keenum and any other QB would’ve had problems against Deruyter’s schemes.
21 of Locker’s 36 career TD passes came last year alone. Also, he posted a whopping 129.75 QB rating last year. Now, that’s not as big as the others listed in your argument, but it’s still pretty stout.
Pryor is playing for Ohio State, and with that notoriety, a TV friendly schedule, and a Nat’l Championship berth, you’ll see him in New York in December.
I left out a name that I probably shouldn’t have, but I still don’t buy in to the hype that is Kellen Moore from Boise State.
"Biggest mistake in DFW history?" - Bigger mistake in LSB history.
"Back in Irish's day you had to kill a man before you were taken seriously in polite society." - Aquaman56 06/25/10
Interestingly, another one of the quarterbacks mentioned (Dalton) did go up against Deruyter’s defense and it didn’t turn out very badly for him. Keenum also apparently gakked up the C-USA championship game against a somewhat less highly rated East Carolina defense.
Any star QB/RB from an undefeated BCS team gets Heisman consideration, but it doesn’t mean they’re the best QB in the game. I don’t think Ohio State will go undefeated though, the game at Iowa is going to be as rough as they come.
by HawkeyedFrog on Aug 10, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Agree totally with assessment of Pryor.
Nothing against Ohio St.—still one of the few schools that are still about power running (Tressel’s style), but his skill set—great running and play making ability would have worked better in spread type of offense—Florida, Michigan, West Virginia, Oregon, ect.
agree with this.
"Biggest mistake in DFW history?" - Bigger mistake in LSB history.
"Back in Irish's day you had to kill a man before you were taken seriously in polite society." - Aquaman56 06/25/10
Recruiting: I for one am very concerned with this year’s class, and I wonder if it’s indicative of a larger problem. A considerable number of potential recruits are signing elsewhere. Maybe this is just a down year for A&M recruiting. Maybe there isn’t a great crop of players for the class of 2011 in Texas. Seems like UT isn’t having much of a problem, nor OU, nor even Texas Tech. A&M had a pretty decent haul for 2010, minus the defection of that LB. Given A&M’s location in Texas, the coaching staff should be hauling in at minimum a top 25 perceived recruiting class year over year. Scout.com has A&M ranked 33 or so right now.
Top 25 polls: Right off the bat, there should be no pre-season polls. Let the writers at CNNSI, ESPN, and Fox Sports make up their own lists, but the AP and USA/Today Coaches poll (and any other official polls) should not even be released until week 4 at the earliest. I’d prefer to see them released more like week 6. That being said, I see no reason for Texas to be ranked outside of the top 25. They played in the BCS nat’l champ game last year; they were undefeated in the regular season; they won the Big XII. They’ll still be loaded with talent this year, regardless of inexperience or lack of running game.
Down year?
Or are the good feelings about a new coaching staff running out and Sherman is seeing diminishing returns because he doesn’t really win football games?
This is the year to put up or shut up, imo. He needs at least 8 wins – too much talent on the team at this point, and the schedule is a bit more soft. The only slight forgiveness I can see is if the defense has problems to start the year playing in the new 3-4.
I don’t think it’s time to throw Sherman under the bus; I don’t think he’s had enough time to prove himself. But season 3 marks the point where a team needs to turn around for the better, and if they do not then it’s time to look at changes.
I agree this is a critical year.
I’m also not trying to throw Sherman under the bus. Our W-L record has been a disappointment under him, to say the least (even though most of us would say that Franchione set us so far back it’s more Fran’s fault than Sherman).
My point is that we aren’t the only ones seeing this – the recruits do too. Hope and relief that Fran is gone only engenders yourself to recruits (and fans) for only so long. Eventually that will run out and the level of players you sign will begin to drop…unless you start winning football games. It’s the second part of that which Sherman has so far failed to deliver.
As a result, I think a dip in recruiting talent may be one indication that regardless of what we think – Sherman’s time may be running out.
My further concern is that with so many in-state recruits choosing other programs over A&M, what does that say to potential recruits about A&M? Potentially it’s yet another negative factor. A&M has everything it needs to succeed in terms of tangibles – location, facilities, fan base, academia. The intangible is the ability of a coaching staff to sell itself to these kids. It’s obviously beyond just W-L: A&M was still pulling in decent recruiting classes under Fran, even after some dreadful seasons.
I’m not saying that Sherman lacks recruiting mojo; I think it’s too early to know that. But I am beginning to wonder given the 2010 defections and this 2011 crop of verbals.
why don't you wait until a class actually signs
before you start freaking out about the 2011 recruiting class?
And Fran didn’t do a good job in recruiting; regardless of rankings, if you don’t recruit an offensive linemen in two years, you’re doing a crappy job. We’re still trying to fix the depth issues on the lines caused by Fran’s screw ups.
I'll worry about it when I see a fall-off on the field
due to those recruits
My only question is if the fact that we’re so young on our roster is hurting us, because players can see it taking a while for them to break into the lineup. Of course, I’m not sure if you want guys who don’t want to compete for a position.
I do understand your attitude toward it. It may be too early to tell, but Sherman and/or his coaches seem to have a nose for underrated talent. But doing well in recruiting is important, and being able to recruit well is an important attribute for a coaching staff. As I said before, A&M has the tangibles, so I expect they can pull in a good to great haul of recruits each year. I definitely don’t want my concerns to be perceived as the sky falling; they’re just concerns at this point.
I think they severely underrate Devonta Burns, Shaun Ward, Donnie Baggs, and Josh Stewart. The rankings are also dependant on the number of recruits. Since we only have 10 right now, that hurts us right now. There are still plenty of high profile recruits who haven’t committed that are strongly considering us like WR Ladarius Brown.
I don't have a problem with texas being top 25
I just think there is no way in hell they are a top 5 team right now
As for the existence of preseason polls, television networks need polls to hype their early season games, and let them know what games to feature each week; sad but true. It’s all about ratings.
The networks know what games to schedule each week. They can look at traditional rivalries, regional games, heads up records, records from the year before, and current record to figure out the games to schedule. There is absolutely no need for polls until the season is in full swing. All the polls do now is allow bias based on perception rather than reality; credit instead of merit.
Interesting point about preseason polls.
If you are ranked high at the beginning of the season, it really can mean the difference between going to the national title game vs. an at-large bid for a BCS bowl game. Giving the schools their nonconference schedule before they are ranked would give things a chance to digest and be seen on the field, rather than a deduction based on perceived talent, and coach’s spin.
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